Chapter 275: 275
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Hearing Yang Jing's words, Cesar and they all nodded excitedly.
Since the end of the last London gold investment action, Cesar's trading has not been limited to the London gold market. In recent years, they have hidden their power and began to shift their focus to the major stock markets and foreign exchange markets. Therefore, they know that compared with the gold market and major stock markets, foreign exchange investment often takes longer to layout, Moreover, once the investment in the foreign exchange market is successful, although the harvest is huge, it also takes a long time to reap the benefits.
In the foreign exchange market, a relatively large and purposeful investment often takes several months or even half a year, and the one-year time mentioned by the boss is not very long in front of such a large amount of funds.
"Well, boss, since you take care of us so much, we will take over the trading task of this investment action!" hearing Yang Jing's firm words, Cesar didn't want to say more in this regard, so he made a decision directly.
"OK! Now that you have taken over the task, let me talk about the specific action plan."
Yang Jing greeted everyone present, and these people followed Yang Jing into an operation room on the first floor specially used for trading.
This room is a large bedroom with more than 30 square meters. There are several connected worktables. There is a telephone and a fax machine on each worktable. The most striking thing is the desktop computer on each table.
This is a computer with a very strange shape. Of course, this strange shape is for Yang Jing. For Mike Al and Cesar, this computer is extremely advanced and science fiction.
"Wow, boss, are these computers the 286 computers launched by IBM last July?" Albert saw the identity of the desktop at a glance.
Yang Jing smiled, nodded and said, "yes, these five computers are the latest computers launched by IBM last year, using Intel's 80286 processor. At present, they belong to the most cutting-edge civil computers. Cesar, can you all operate them?"
Cesar and all of them nodded, indicating that they would operate this new machine.
In fact, even if there is a computer at this time, the application area of civil use is still very narrow. After all, in this era, the network is only used in the military, and the private network has not yet been affected.
Without the network, even if your computer is more advanced, it is useless. Without the Internet, the computer is like a 100m world champion without legs.
"Boss, these computers are only suitable for calculating all kinds of data, and transactions have to rely on telephone and fax machines." Cesar pointed out the limitations of these computers in one sentence.
"I understand. I bought these computers for you just to facilitate your work." he clapped his hands and attracted the attention of the team members who were playing with those computers. "Guys, are you still satisfied with the environment here?"
Several people nodded with satisfaction. Although this is not the most professional trading room, the conditions are very good. Even if you work here for a year, it must not be very uncomfortable.
"Well, since you are very satisfied with the conditions here, I'll start talking." Yang Jing looked at several people and motioned them to sit down. Then he said, "we have only two investment goals this time, one is Japanese yen and the other is US dollar. What you need to do is short US dollars and long Japanese yen."
Cesar nodded to show his understanding and said, "boss, can you explain it in detail?"
"That's no problem. You must have a deep feeling about the continued strength of the dollar in recent years?"
Albert said with a bitter smile: "Yes, boss, the strength of the US dollar over the years and the high interest rate policy of the US government have kept the US dollar in a high state of operation. To be honest, we are all worried about how long this situation can last. The strength of the US dollar is really frightening. In your words, it is more than enough. If this state continues, it will be more difficult It's too dangerous. "
Yang Jing snapped her fingers with satisfaction and said: "Albert is right. In fact, I also think that the high-level operation of the US dollar should not last long. This state of the US dollar has seriously affected all kinds of adverse situations in the United States. Even Japan and major European countries have been greatly affected. If the current situation is not changed, the whole world will face a disaster Therefore, I think the depreciation of the US dollar has reached the stage when the trend is inevitable. "
Yang Jing's fingers lightly touched the table and continued: "In fact, this was not a day's work, but a series of stupid decisions made by the Washington authorities over a period of seven or eight years. As early as 1977, the United States proposed to devalue the US dollar because Japan and Germany had a large trade surplus with the United States. Although it was only a verbal expression of the US Treasury Secretary at that time, it also triggered the crisis of US dollar devaluation , from the beginning of 1977 to the autumn of 1978, the US dollar depreciated by more than 40% in a short period of more than 20 months! This crazy depreciation alarmed the Carter government, so President Carter formulated the stupid "package plan to save the US dollar" to make the US dollar appreciate again. "
"Carter's plan should be considered wise at that time, but Carter did not expect that it had just been implemented. Because the outbreak of Iran's * * * revolution led to the second oil crisis, and the strong appreciation of the US dollar at this time, it led to serious inflation in the United States."
Cesar smiled and said, "boss, I know what you said. At that time, the inflation in the United States was very serious. Otherwise, Paul Volcker, then chairman of the Federal Reserve, would not have urgently raised the official interest rate for three consecutive times and implemented the tight monetary policy at the beginning of taking office."
Yang Jing smiled, nodded and said: "This is a typical example. Paul Volcker's continuous increase in the official interest rate has indeed curbed inflation, but on the other hand, it has triggered a series of adverse situations. Because the increase in the official interest rate of the United States has led to a large number of foreign funds flowing into the United States, which has directly led to the appreciation of the US dollar by 60% in just five years! The appreciation of the US dollar is so fast that it has gone straight The next result is that the US government has a large fiscal deficit and the trade deficit has further expanded. "
"Therefore, a country's economy should not be a pain in the head and a foot in the foot, but should be considered comprehensively. The final result is that it is difficult to ride a tiger like the Carter administration and the Reagan administration."
"What's more ridiculous is that the newly re elected Reagan administration doesn't seem to care about the current situation at all. On the contrary, President Reagan, who has been re elected successfully, has to add fuel to the fire. As far as I know, the comprehensive tax reduction policy carefully planned by Mr. Reagan is coming soon. Moreover, the plan to increase U.S. military spending has been approved by the U.S. Congress, and U.S. Defense orders have soared. What will happen? Very simply, once the tax reduction policy is approved by Congress, the U.S. economy, which was originally in low growth, will soon enter a channel of high growth under the dual stimulus of tax reduction and national defense construction. "
"With the huge fiscal deficit and the high operation of the US dollar, if the domestic economy overheats, it is obviously inappropriate, or even an irreconcilable contradiction."
Mike aller also interrupted: "yes, on the one hand, the trade deficit is inevitable because of the strength of the dollar. On the other hand, it is the surplus of domestic production capacity in the United States. If the Reagan administration does not change, once this irreconcilable contradiction completely breaks out, the United States and even the world will fall into a disaster!" As a senior accountant, Mike aller has a thorough understanding of macro-economy.
Yang Jing smiled and raised a thumb at Mike aller to show her appreciation.
In fact, what Yang Jinggang just said is only a fundamental reason. Once the Reagan Administration's tax reduction policy + plan to increase U.S. military spending is fully launched, a huge speculative crisis will immediately envelop the United States.
After World War II, the world's economy slowly moved towards integration. The closed door policy can no longer adapt to the rapid economic development. The global economy has entered a situation that affects the whole body.
As the most powerful country in the world economy, the United States has always been the wind vane of the world economy. Once the Reagan Administration's tax reduction policy and the plan to increase U.S. military spending are fully launched, it can be expected that the exchange rate of the dollar against other major currencies in the world will continue to rise in New York, Tokyo and major foreign exchange markets in Europe, The U.S. stock market will also jump up like a bull. The U.S. economy will immediately show prosperity and the U.S. economic prospect seems bright.
However, at a time when the U.S. economy is booming, the situation in other parts of the world is very bad. Socialist countries such as the Soviet Union are basically in a state of self circulation. The situation in developed countries such as Japan and Western Europe is general. Developing countries in Latin America and East Asia have begun to grow rapidly, but many domestic unstable factors need to be improved. The war in Cambodia and the change of political power in South America have made Many foreign investors are deterred.
At a time when such global investment opportunities are not clear, the US economy suddenly brightens, which naturally makes many foreign investors quickly mobilize funds and flock to the US market.
In the words of Soros, a famous financial speculation speculators of the later ages, the financial investment is too active, the market speculation factor will increase, the financial "bubble" will gradually increase, and the vulnerability and danger of the market will naturally increase with the further active investment, "bubble". Once formed, there will naturally be a day of collapse. At that time, the collapse of the financial market is inevitable, and our opportunity to make big money will follow.
Soros was able to cross the global financial speculation market in future generations. Naturally, his vision was not generally strong. Since he saw that the U.S. economy was actually in the process of moving towards danger, he would not give up such a good opportunity.
Before preparing for this investment action, Yang Jing inquired a lot of information, among which Soros had a very detailed explanation of the speculative process of dollar depreciation and yen appreciation at that time.
At that time, Soros made a penetrating evaluation of Reagan's economic policy from the perspective of financial investment. Soros clearly pointed out that this was "worth considering" It is undeniable that this policy has stimulated the U.S. economy, but if the degree of stimulation is too large, the U.S. economy may be counterproductive and more than enough. Soros named the economic development situation caused by this kind-hearted economic policy that may do bad things "Reagan cycle".
The "big cycle" is caused by stimulating economic growth, but a large number of foreign capital pouring into the U.S. financial market will lead to the rapid growth of foreign loans and liabilities of the U.S. economy as a whole. At this time, if foreign investment continues to pour in, the overall cost of borrowing and debt will increase. At the same time, the cost of new foreign capital entering the US financial market will be relatively reduced. When liabilities are close to costs and even exceed the cost of foreign capital sources, some inconspicuous factors will puncturing the emerging financial bubbles.
Reflected in the financial market, the exchange rate of the US dollar will fall rapidly as it rose at the original rate. Foreign funds pouring into the U.S. market for huge speculative profits naturally fled in the hope of "falling" and quickly withdrew from the U.S. financial market. The consequences of this are serious. The great changes in the financial market will make the U.S. economy rapidly decline and the overall economy shrink seriously. Here is the dread of the "big cycle". Starting from revitalization, it returns to the situation of non revitalization or even recession due to excessive stimulation.
In Soros's words, that is, in the current market, investors are worried that the increase of money supply in the financial market will cause economic overheating, and that higher interest rates will lead to rapid economic cooling. Therefore, stocks affected by the low interest rate policy were ignored, and stocks stimulated by Reagan's economic policy were optimistic. This is a very dangerous market trend. In fact, the prospect of economic prosperity driven by Reagan's policy is not optimistic. The US dollar exchange rate rises too much and is bound to fall. The US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at any time, and the economic cooling is also predictable.
Don't mention Soros. Even when talking to Cesar just now, Cesar made it clear that they were frightened by the current operation of the US dollar at this high level, not to mention those financial giants specializing in financial speculation?
Everyone can see that in order to avoid the United States falling into a terrible economic crisis due to the economic stimulus plan of the Reagan administration, the Federal Reserve and the awakened U.S. government are bound to cool the U.S. economy and the dollar. However, these speculative financial giants may not guess when the Federal Reserve and the U.S. government will sell.
But Yang Jing knows! In September 1985, that is, more than a month ago, the famous Plaza Agreement of later generations will be officially signed
Please report us if you find any errors so we can fix it asap!
Hearing Yang Jing's words, Cesar and they all nodded excitedly.
Since the end of the last London gold investment action, Cesar's trading has not been limited to the London gold market. In recent years, they have hidden their power and began to shift their focus to the major stock markets and foreign exchange markets. Therefore, they know that compared with the gold market and major stock markets, foreign exchange investment often takes longer to layout, Moreover, once the investment in the foreign exchange market is successful, although the harvest is huge, it also takes a long time to reap the benefits.
In the foreign exchange market, a relatively large and purposeful investment often takes several months or even half a year, and the one-year time mentioned by the boss is not very long in front of such a large amount of funds.
"Well, boss, since you take care of us so much, we will take over the trading task of this investment action!" hearing Yang Jing's firm words, Cesar didn't want to say more in this regard, so he made a decision directly.
"OK! Now that you have taken over the task, let me talk about the specific action plan."
Yang Jing greeted everyone present, and these people followed Yang Jing into an operation room on the first floor specially used for trading.
This room is a large bedroom with more than 30 square meters. There are several connected worktables. There is a telephone and a fax machine on each worktable. The most striking thing is the desktop computer on each table.
This is a computer with a very strange shape. Of course, this strange shape is for Yang Jing. For Mike Al and Cesar, this computer is extremely advanced and science fiction.
"Wow, boss, are these computers the 286 computers launched by IBM last July?" Albert saw the identity of the desktop at a glance.
Yang Jing smiled, nodded and said, "yes, these five computers are the latest computers launched by IBM last year, using Intel's 80286 processor. At present, they belong to the most cutting-edge civil computers. Cesar, can you all operate them?"
Cesar and all of them nodded, indicating that they would operate this new machine.
In fact, even if there is a computer at this time, the application area of civil use is still very narrow. After all, in this era, the network is only used in the military, and the private network has not yet been affected.
Without the network, even if your computer is more advanced, it is useless. Without the Internet, the computer is like a 100m world champion without legs.
"Boss, these computers are only suitable for calculating all kinds of data, and transactions have to rely on telephone and fax machines." Cesar pointed out the limitations of these computers in one sentence.
"I understand. I bought these computers for you just to facilitate your work." he clapped his hands and attracted the attention of the team members who were playing with those computers. "Guys, are you still satisfied with the environment here?"
Several people nodded with satisfaction. Although this is not the most professional trading room, the conditions are very good. Even if you work here for a year, it must not be very uncomfortable.
"Well, since you are very satisfied with the conditions here, I'll start talking." Yang Jing looked at several people and motioned them to sit down. Then he said, "we have only two investment goals this time, one is Japanese yen and the other is US dollar. What you need to do is short US dollars and long Japanese yen."
Cesar nodded to show his understanding and said, "boss, can you explain it in detail?"
"That's no problem. You must have a deep feeling about the continued strength of the dollar in recent years?"
Albert said with a bitter smile: "Yes, boss, the strength of the US dollar over the years and the high interest rate policy of the US government have kept the US dollar in a high state of operation. To be honest, we are all worried about how long this situation can last. The strength of the US dollar is really frightening. In your words, it is more than enough. If this state continues, it will be more difficult It's too dangerous. "
Yang Jing snapped her fingers with satisfaction and said: "Albert is right. In fact, I also think that the high-level operation of the US dollar should not last long. This state of the US dollar has seriously affected all kinds of adverse situations in the United States. Even Japan and major European countries have been greatly affected. If the current situation is not changed, the whole world will face a disaster Therefore, I think the depreciation of the US dollar has reached the stage when the trend is inevitable. "
Yang Jing's fingers lightly touched the table and continued: "In fact, this was not a day's work, but a series of stupid decisions made by the Washington authorities over a period of seven or eight years. As early as 1977, the United States proposed to devalue the US dollar because Japan and Germany had a large trade surplus with the United States. Although it was only a verbal expression of the US Treasury Secretary at that time, it also triggered the crisis of US dollar devaluation , from the beginning of 1977 to the autumn of 1978, the US dollar depreciated by more than 40% in a short period of more than 20 months! This crazy depreciation alarmed the Carter government, so President Carter formulated the stupid "package plan to save the US dollar" to make the US dollar appreciate again. "
"Carter's plan should be considered wise at that time, but Carter did not expect that it had just been implemented. Because the outbreak of Iran's * * * revolution led to the second oil crisis, and the strong appreciation of the US dollar at this time, it led to serious inflation in the United States."
Cesar smiled and said, "boss, I know what you said. At that time, the inflation in the United States was very serious. Otherwise, Paul Volcker, then chairman of the Federal Reserve, would not have urgently raised the official interest rate for three consecutive times and implemented the tight monetary policy at the beginning of taking office."
Yang Jing smiled, nodded and said: "This is a typical example. Paul Volcker's continuous increase in the official interest rate has indeed curbed inflation, but on the other hand, it has triggered a series of adverse situations. Because the increase in the official interest rate of the United States has led to a large number of foreign funds flowing into the United States, which has directly led to the appreciation of the US dollar by 60% in just five years! The appreciation of the US dollar is so fast that it has gone straight The next result is that the US government has a large fiscal deficit and the trade deficit has further expanded. "
"Therefore, a country's economy should not be a pain in the head and a foot in the foot, but should be considered comprehensively. The final result is that it is difficult to ride a tiger like the Carter administration and the Reagan administration."
"What's more ridiculous is that the newly re elected Reagan administration doesn't seem to care about the current situation at all. On the contrary, President Reagan, who has been re elected successfully, has to add fuel to the fire. As far as I know, the comprehensive tax reduction policy carefully planned by Mr. Reagan is coming soon. Moreover, the plan to increase U.S. military spending has been approved by the U.S. Congress, and U.S. Defense orders have soared. What will happen? Very simply, once the tax reduction policy is approved by Congress, the U.S. economy, which was originally in low growth, will soon enter a channel of high growth under the dual stimulus of tax reduction and national defense construction. "
"With the huge fiscal deficit and the high operation of the US dollar, if the domestic economy overheats, it is obviously inappropriate, or even an irreconcilable contradiction."
Mike aller also interrupted: "yes, on the one hand, the trade deficit is inevitable because of the strength of the dollar. On the other hand, it is the surplus of domestic production capacity in the United States. If the Reagan administration does not change, once this irreconcilable contradiction completely breaks out, the United States and even the world will fall into a disaster!" As a senior accountant, Mike aller has a thorough understanding of macro-economy.
Yang Jing smiled and raised a thumb at Mike aller to show her appreciation.
In fact, what Yang Jinggang just said is only a fundamental reason. Once the Reagan Administration's tax reduction policy + plan to increase U.S. military spending is fully launched, a huge speculative crisis will immediately envelop the United States.
After World War II, the world's economy slowly moved towards integration. The closed door policy can no longer adapt to the rapid economic development. The global economy has entered a situation that affects the whole body.
As the most powerful country in the world economy, the United States has always been the wind vane of the world economy. Once the Reagan Administration's tax reduction policy and the plan to increase U.S. military spending are fully launched, it can be expected that the exchange rate of the dollar against other major currencies in the world will continue to rise in New York, Tokyo and major foreign exchange markets in Europe, The U.S. stock market will also jump up like a bull. The U.S. economy will immediately show prosperity and the U.S. economic prospect seems bright.
However, at a time when the U.S. economy is booming, the situation in other parts of the world is very bad. Socialist countries such as the Soviet Union are basically in a state of self circulation. The situation in developed countries such as Japan and Western Europe is general. Developing countries in Latin America and East Asia have begun to grow rapidly, but many domestic unstable factors need to be improved. The war in Cambodia and the change of political power in South America have made Many foreign investors are deterred.
At a time when such global investment opportunities are not clear, the US economy suddenly brightens, which naturally makes many foreign investors quickly mobilize funds and flock to the US market.
In the words of Soros, a famous financial speculation speculators of the later ages, the financial investment is too active, the market speculation factor will increase, the financial "bubble" will gradually increase, and the vulnerability and danger of the market will naturally increase with the further active investment, "bubble". Once formed, there will naturally be a day of collapse. At that time, the collapse of the financial market is inevitable, and our opportunity to make big money will follow.
Soros was able to cross the global financial speculation market in future generations. Naturally, his vision was not generally strong. Since he saw that the U.S. economy was actually in the process of moving towards danger, he would not give up such a good opportunity.
Before preparing for this investment action, Yang Jing inquired a lot of information, among which Soros had a very detailed explanation of the speculative process of dollar depreciation and yen appreciation at that time.
At that time, Soros made a penetrating evaluation of Reagan's economic policy from the perspective of financial investment. Soros clearly pointed out that this was "worth considering" It is undeniable that this policy has stimulated the U.S. economy, but if the degree of stimulation is too large, the U.S. economy may be counterproductive and more than enough. Soros named the economic development situation caused by this kind-hearted economic policy that may do bad things "Reagan cycle".
The "big cycle" is caused by stimulating economic growth, but a large number of foreign capital pouring into the U.S. financial market will lead to the rapid growth of foreign loans and liabilities of the U.S. economy as a whole. At this time, if foreign investment continues to pour in, the overall cost of borrowing and debt will increase. At the same time, the cost of new foreign capital entering the US financial market will be relatively reduced. When liabilities are close to costs and even exceed the cost of foreign capital sources, some inconspicuous factors will puncturing the emerging financial bubbles.
Reflected in the financial market, the exchange rate of the US dollar will fall rapidly as it rose at the original rate. Foreign funds pouring into the U.S. market for huge speculative profits naturally fled in the hope of "falling" and quickly withdrew from the U.S. financial market. The consequences of this are serious. The great changes in the financial market will make the U.S. economy rapidly decline and the overall economy shrink seriously. Here is the dread of the "big cycle". Starting from revitalization, it returns to the situation of non revitalization or even recession due to excessive stimulation.
In Soros's words, that is, in the current market, investors are worried that the increase of money supply in the financial market will cause economic overheating, and that higher interest rates will lead to rapid economic cooling. Therefore, stocks affected by the low interest rate policy were ignored, and stocks stimulated by Reagan's economic policy were optimistic. This is a very dangerous market trend. In fact, the prospect of economic prosperity driven by Reagan's policy is not optimistic. The US dollar exchange rate rises too much and is bound to fall. The US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at any time, and the economic cooling is also predictable.
Don't mention Soros. Even when talking to Cesar just now, Cesar made it clear that they were frightened by the current operation of the US dollar at this high level, not to mention those financial giants specializing in financial speculation?
Everyone can see that in order to avoid the United States falling into a terrible economic crisis due to the economic stimulus plan of the Reagan administration, the Federal Reserve and the awakened U.S. government are bound to cool the U.S. economy and the dollar. However, these speculative financial giants may not guess when the Federal Reserve and the U.S. government will sell.
But Yang Jing knows! In September 1985, that is, more than a month ago, the famous Plaza Agreement of later generations will be officially signed
Hearing Yang Jing's words, Cesar and they all nodded excitedly.Since the end of the last London gold investment action, Cesar's trading has not been limited to the London gold market. In recent years, they have hidden their power and began to shift their focus to the major stock markets and foreign exchange markets. Therefore, they know that compared with the gold market and major stock markets, foreign exchange investment often takes longer to layout, Moreover, once the investment in the foreign exchange market is successful, although the harvest is huge, it also takes a long time to reap the benefits.In the foreign exchange market, a relatively large and purposeful investment often takes several months or even half a year, and the one-year time mentioned by the boss is not very long in front of such a large amount of funds."Well, boss, since you take care of us so much, we will take over the trading task of this investment action!" hearing Yang Jing's firm words, Cesar didn't want to say more in this regard, so he made a decision directly."OK! Now that you have taken over the task, let me talk about the specific action plan."Yang Jing greeted everyone present, and these people followed Yang Jing into an operation room on the first floor specially used for trading.This room is a large bedroom with more than 30 square meters. There are several connected worktables. There is a telephone and a fax machine on each worktable. The most striking thing is the desktop computer on each table.This is a computer with a very strange shape. Of course, this strange shape is for Yang Jing. For Mike Al and Cesar, this computer is extremely advanced and science fiction."Wow, boss, are these computers the 286 computers launched by IBM last July?" Albert saw the identity of the desktop at a glance.Yang Jing smiled, nodded and said, "yes, these five computers are the latest computers launched by IBM last year, using Intel's 80286 processor. At present, they belong to the most cutting-edge civil computers. Cesar, can you all operate them?"Cesar and all of them nodded, indicating that they would operate this new machine.In fact, even if there is a computer at this time, the application area of civil use is still very narrow. After all, in this era, the network is only used in the military, and the private network has not yet been affected.Without the network, even if your computer is more advanced, it is useless. Without the Internet, the computer is like a 100m world champion without legs."Boss, these computers are only suitable for calculating all kinds of data, and transactions have to rely on telephone and fax machines." Cesar pointed out the limitations of these computers in one sentence."I understand. I bought these computers for you just to facilitate your work." he clapped his hands and attracted the attention of the team members who were playing with those computers. "Guys, are you still satisfied with the environment here?"Several people nodded with satisfaction. Although this is not the most professional trading room, the conditions are very good. Even if you work here for a year, it must not be very uncomfortable."Well, since you are very satisfied with the conditions here, I'll start talking." Yang Jing looked at several people and motioned them to sit down. Then he said, "we have only two investment goals this time, one is Japanese yen and the other is US dollar. What you need to do is short US dollars and long Japanese yen."Cesar nodded to show his understanding and said, "boss, can you explain it in detail?""That's no problem. You must have a deep feeling about the continued strength of the dollar in recent years?"Albert said with a bitter smile: "Yes, boss, the strength of the US dollar over the years and the high interest rate policy of the US government have kept the US dollar in a high state of operation. To be honest, we are all worried about how long this situation can last. The strength of the US dollar is really frightening. In your words, it is more than enough. If this state continues, it will be more difficult It's too dangerous. "Yang Jing snapped her fingers with satisfaction and said: "Albert is right. In fact, I also think that the high-level operation of the US dollar should not last long. This state of the US dollar has seriously affected all kinds of adverse situations in the United States. Even Japan and major European countries have been greatly affected. If the current situation is not changed, the whole world will face a disaster Therefore, I think the depreciation of the US dollar has reached the stage when the trend is inevitable. "Yang Jing's fingers lightly touched the table and continued: "In fact, this was not a day's work, but a series of stupid decisions made by the Washington authorities over a period of seven or eight years. As early as 1977, the United States proposed to devalue the US dollar because Japan and Germany had a large trade surplus with the United States. Although it was only a verbal expression of the US Treasury Secretary at that time, it also triggered the crisis of US dollar devaluation , from the beginning of 1977 to the autumn of 1978, the US dollar depreciated by more than 40% in a short period of more than 20 months! This crazy depreciation alarmed the Carter government, so President Carter formulated the stupid "package plan to save the US dollar" to make the US dollar appreciate again. ""Carter's plan should be considered wise at that time, but Carter did not expect that it had just been implemented. Because the outbreak of Iran's * * * revolution led to the second oil crisis, and the strong appreciation of the US dollar at this time, it led to serious inflation in the United States."Cesar smiled and said, "boss, I know what you said. At that time, the inflation in the United States was very serious. Otherwise, Paul Volcker, then chairman of the Federal Reserve, would not have urgently raised the official interest rate for three consecutive times and implemented the tight monetary policy at the beginning of taking office."Yang Jing smiled, nodded and said: "This is a typical example. Paul Volcker's continuous increase in the official interest rate has indeed curbed inflation, but on the other hand, it has triggered a series of adverse situations. Because the increase in the official interest rate of the United States has led to a large number of foreign funds flowing into the United States, which has directly led to the appreciation of the US dollar by 60% in just five years! The appreciation of the US dollar is so fast that it has gone straight The next result is that the US government has a large fiscal deficit and the trade deficit has further expanded. ""Therefore, a country's economy should not be a pain in the head and a foot in the foot, but should be considered comprehensively. The final result is that it is difficult to ride a tiger like the Carter administration and the Reagan administration.""What's more ridiculous is that the newly re elected Reagan administration doesn't seem to care about the current situation at all. On the contrary, President Reagan, who has been re elected successfully, has to add fuel to the fire. As far as I know, the comprehensive tax reduction policy carefully planned by Mr. Reagan is coming soon. Moreover, the plan to increase U.S. military spending has been approved by the U.S. Congress, and U.S. Defense orders have soared. What will happen? Very simply, once the tax reduction policy is approved by Congress, the U.S. economy, which was originally in low growth, will soon enter a channel of high growth under the dual stimulus of tax reduction and national defense construction. ""With the huge fiscal deficit and the high operation of the US dollar, if the domestic economy overheats, it is obviously inappropriate, or even an irreconcilable contradiction."Mike aller also interrupted: "yes, on the one hand, the trade deficit is inevitable because of the strength of the dollar. On the other hand, it is the surplus of domestic production capacity in the United States. If the Reagan administration does not change, once this irreconcilable contradiction completely breaks out, the United States and even the world will fall into a disaster!" As a senior accountant, Mike aller has a thorough understanding of macro-economy.Yang Jing smiled and raised a thumb at Mike aller to show her appreciation.In fact, what Yang Jinggang just said is only a fundamental reason. Once the Reagan Administration's tax reduction policy + plan to increase U.S. military spending is fully launched, a huge speculative crisis will immediately envelop the United States.After World War II, the world's economy slowly moved towards integration. The closed door policy can no longer adapt to the rapid economic development. The global economy has entered a situation that affects the whole body.As the most powerful country in the world economy, the United States has always been the wind vane of the world economy. Once the Reagan Administration's tax reduction policy and the plan to increase U.S. military spending are fully launched, it can be expected that the exchange rate of the dollar against other major currencies in the world will continue to rise in New York, Tokyo and major foreign exchange markets in Europe, The U.S. stock market will also jump up like a bull. The U.S. economy will immediately show prosperity and the U.S. economic prospect seems bright.However, at a time when the U.S. economy is booming, the situation in other parts of the world is very bad. Socialist countries such as the Soviet Union are basically in a state of self circulation. The situation in developed countries such as Japan and Western Europe is general. Developing countries in Latin America and East Asia have begun to grow rapidly, but many domestic unstable factors need to be improved. The war in Cambodia and the change of political power in South America have made Many foreign investors are deterred.At a time when such global investment opportunities are not clear, the US economy suddenly brightens, which naturally makes many foreign investors quickly mobilize funds and flock to the US market.In the words of Soros, a famous financial speculation speculators of the later ages, the financial investment is too active, the market speculation factor will increase, the financial "bubble" will gradually increase, and the vulnerability and danger of the market will naturally increase with the further active investment, "bubble". Once formed, there will naturally be a day of collapse. At that time, the collapse of the financial market is inevitable, and our opportunity to make big money will follow.Soros was able to cross the global financial speculation market in future generations. Naturally, his vision was not generally strong. Since he saw that the U.S. economy was actually in the process of moving towards danger, he would not give up such a good opportunity.Before preparing for this investment action, Yang Jing inquired a lot of information, among which Soros had a very detailed explanation of the speculative process of dollar depreciation and yen appreciation at that time.At that time, Soros made a penetrating evaluation of Reagan's economic policy from the perspective of financial investment. Soros clearly pointed out that this was "worth considering" It is undeniable that this policy has stimulated the U.S. economy, but if the degree of stimulation is too large, the U.S. economy may be counterproductive and more than enough. Soros named the economic development situation caused by this kind-hearted economic policy that may do bad things "Reagan cycle".The "big cycle" is caused by stimulating economic growth, but a large number of foreign capital pouring into the U.S. financial market will lead to the rapid growth of foreign loans and liabilities of the U.S. economy as a whole. At this time, if foreign investment continues to pour in, the overall cost of borrowing and debt will increase. At the same time, the cost of new foreign capital entering the US financial market will be relatively reduced. When liabilities are close to costs and even exceed the cost of foreign capital sources, some inconspicuous factors will puncturing the emerging financial bubbles.Reflected in the financial market, the exchange rate of the US dollar will fall rapidly as it rose at the original rate. Foreign funds pouring into the U.S. market for huge speculative profits naturally fled in the hope of "falling" and quickly withdrew from the U.S. financial market. The consequences of this are serious. The great changes in the financial market will make the U.S. economy rapidly decline and the overall economy shrink seriously. Here is the dread of the "big cycle". Starting from revitalization, it returns to the situation of non revitalization or even recession due to excessive stimulation.In Soros's words, that is, in the current market, investors are worried that the increase of money supply in the financial market will cause economic overheating, and that higher interest rates will lead to rapid economic cooling. Therefore, stocks affected by the low interest rate policy were ignored, and stocks stimulated by Reagan's economic policy were optimistic. This is a very dangerous market trend. In fact, the prospect of economic prosperity driven by Reagan's policy is not optimistic. The US dollar exchange rate rises too much and is bound to fall. The US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at any time, and the economic cooling is also predictable.Don't mention Soros. Even when talking to Cesar just now, Cesar made it clear that they were frightened by the current operation of the US dollar at this high level, not to mention those financial giants specializing in financial speculation?Everyone can see that in order to avoid the United States falling into a terrible economic crisis due to the economic stimulus plan of the Reagan administration, the Federal Reserve and the awakened U.S. government are bound to cool the U.S. economy and the dollar. However, these speculative financial giants may not guess when the Federal Reserve and the U.S. government will sell.But Yang Jing knows! In September 1985, that is, more than a month ago, the famous Plaza Agreement of later generations will be officially signed
