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Happy Tycoon - Chapter 926

Published at 29th of September 2021 01:26:03 PM


Chapter 926: 926

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In fact, as early as the second quarter of 2005, the U.S. real estate market had an unusual performance. In this quarter, the original hot real estate market began to cool down. The most direct embodiment is the stagnation of house prices, and even the house prices in some states have a faint correction momentum.

Once house prices really start to fall, it will be difficult for buyers to sell their houses or obtain financing through mortgages. If this phenomenon continues, many borrowers in the subprime mortgage market will not be able to repay their loans on time, and the subprime mortgage market will inevitably break out of crisis.

However, the hot U.S. real estate market in the early stage blinded almost everyone's eyes. At this time point, no one would think that the U.S. real estate market would collapse. These people almost included the executives of all large multinational banks, investment banks, insurance and securities companies all over the world.

However, the collapse of the market is not transferred by someone's will. Although the apparent prosperity makes these large investment institutions still insist on investing a large amount of money in those financial derivatives to make profits, secretly, an undercurrent has begun to appear.

First of all, there have been a series of strange financial events on Wall Street. Although no one realizes that this series of strange financial events will be linked to the collapse of American real estate at this time, this series of strange financial events is a real precursor to the collapse of American real estate market!

As the saying goes, "when the country is dying, there must be demons!" is as common in the American real estate market.

If the U.S. real estate market is regarded as a huge financial empire, then when this huge financial empire collapses, some incredible "demons" will appear.

The first demon to pop out is the amaranth fund, known as the "flower that does not wither".

Amaranth comes from Greek, which originally means "flowers that never wither".

In September 2000, Nicholas mauness, a Wall Street trader who is proficient in convertible bond trading, established the "flower of never falling" Consulting Co., Ltd., namely amaranth fund, in Greenwich Town, Connecticut.

At the beginning of its establishment, the fund only had a starting capital of US $600 million. At the beginning, it mainly engaged in convertible bond arbitrage and other derivatives transactions. It is a Multi Strategy hedge fund.

By the end of 2005, the amaranth fund had grown to $7.24 billion.

There is a "Star" natural gas futures trader in amaranth fund. The star trader from Canada is Brian hunt. He changed his job from Deutsche Bank to amaranth fund in 2004. Before that, he worked at Deutsche Bank for three years, specializing in natural gas futures trading.

Mr. hunter has rich experience in natural gas futures trading and a calm and persistent trading style. In September 2005, he successfully seized the long opportunity of the sharp rise in the U.S. natural gas price due to Hurricane Katrina hitting the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, earned more than $1 billion for amaranth fund, and therefore received a year-end reward of about $75 million to $100 million.

But success is hunt, failure is hunt.

Because of the sweet taste in natural gas futures trading and the meager profit of convertible bond arbitrage trading, amaranth fund continued to increase its investment in natural gas futures and spent about half of its assets on natural gas futures trading after 2006.

In the first four months of 2006, Brian hunt earned $2 billion for amaranth fund. Although he lost $1 billion in May, hunt earned another $1 billion from June to August. At the end of July, hunt said in an interview that he had "great" prospects for the return on profits from speculation in natural gas futures: "The fluctuation cycle of crude oil futures market generally takes several years, while the fluctuation cycle of natural gas futures market is only a few months!"

However, it is difficult to calculate by man, and there is no "ever victorious general" in the market! In mid September 2006, Hunter earlier "bet" that the price of natural gas futures would rise and established a huge shoulder arbitrage position of "buying NYMEX natural gas futures 0703 contract and selling 0704 contract at the same time", which did not develop in the direction of Hunter's judgment, but fell sharply. Therefore, Hunter's "heavy bet" Suffer heavy losses!

On September 18, 2006, Nicholas mauness, the founder of amaranth fund, suddenly sent a letter to its investors, informing them that amaranth fund suffered heavy losses in its investment in energy due to the "unexpected" sharp drop in natural gas prices. Amaranth fund is a well-known "big player" in NYMEX natural gas futures market On September 19, the New York Times disclosed that amaranth fund lost more than $3 billion in speculation on natural gas futures!

After the news of the sudden huge loss of amaranth fund spread, its investors, loan banks and partners asked it to return the loan and deposit, and amaranth was forced to close the loss position at the principal discount price.

However, due to its heavy position in natural gas futures, after a large number of closed positions poured into the market, the futures price accelerated the decline and exacerbated the loss of its original position. By the end of September 2006, the loss of amaranth fund had expanded to US $6.6 billion, accounting for more than 70% of its total assets.

Finally, amaranth fund surrendered, conceded defeat and went bankrupt. The never withering flowers on Wall Street fall slowly in the cold wind.

Among the investors who invested in amaranth fund, including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, 3M pension fund, San Diego National Pension Fund Association and so on, these investors all suffered serious losses.

The second evil is Blackstone Group, a famous alternative asset management and financial advisory service organization in the United States, which is commonly known as Blackstone Group.

Speaking of this matter, it still has a certain relationship with China.

In 2007, the newly established CIC began its first foreign investment. At that time, CIC bought a 9.4% stake in Blackstone for $3 billion.

At this time, Blackstone took over EOP real estate with many prime commercial buildings in large cities from Sam Zell, known as "real estate Buffett", with a leveraged acquisition of US $39 billion.

At the same time, Sam Zell bought the forum media group, which owns the Chicago Tribune and the Los Angeles Times, for $8.3 billion.

These serial transactions seem to be perfect, but no one thought that Sam Zell just took over the forum group, went bankrupt because of poor management, and Blackstone took over the summit of American real estate, so China's investment in Blackstone ended in a loss of $2.4 billion!

On the surface, there seems to be no inevitable connection between the two evils of amaranth fund and Blackstone Group, but don't forget that the main investors of amaranth fund suffered serious damage after amaranth fund declared bankruptcy!

Look at the main investors of amaranth fund, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, 3M pension fund and San Diego National Pension Fund Association... These investment institutions not only invested in amaranth fund, but also invested heavily in the U.S. real estate market. And Blackstone Group, which also invested a lot of money in the American real estate market at that time!

These investment institutions that invest heavily in speculation in the U.S. real estate market will inevitably affect their investment in the U.S. real estate market after suffering heavy losses in other aspects. Therefore, at a critical juncture, these seemingly unrelated investment failures led to the beginning of the collapse of the U.S. real estate market.

From the second half of 2006, the U.S. real estate market began to cool rapidly, and the risk of the subprime mortgage crisis being detonated is becoming greater and greater. By the beginning of 2007, the subprime mortgage crisis was finally uncontrollable and completely detonated!

In February 2007, new century finance, the second largest subprime mortgage company in the United States, issued a profit warning for the fourth quarter of last year. On April 2, new century finance declared bankruptcy because it was unable to repay up to $17.4 billion in debt.

In March 2007, HSBC Holdings announced its performance and increased the reserve for subprime housing credit in the United States by US $7 billion, a total of US $10.573 billion, an increase of 33.6%; As soon as the news came out, the stock market fell sharply that day, of which the Hang Seng Index fell 777 points, or 4%.

On August 2, 2007, Industrial Bank of Germany announced a profit warning. Later, it was estimated that it had a loss of 8.2 billion euros, because its "Rhineland fund" with a scale of 12.7 billion euros and the bank itself had a small amount of participation in the business of the U.S. real estate subprime mortgage market. The Bundesbank convened national banks to discuss a package plan to save German Industrial Bank.

On August 6, 2007, American mortgage investment corporation, the tenth largest mortgage lending institution in the United States, officially applied to the court for bankruptcy protection, becoming another large mortgage lending institution applying for bankruptcy in the United States after new century financial corporation.

On August 8, 2007, Bear Stearns, the fifth largest investment bank in the United States, announced the collapse of its two funds, also due to the subprime mortgage crisis.

On August 9, 2007, BNP Paribas, France's largest bank, announced the freezing of its three funds, which also suffered huge losses due to its investment in American subprime mortgage bonds. The move led to a sharp decline in European stock markets.

On August 13, 2007, Mizuho group, the parent company of Mizuho bank, Japan's second largest bank, announced a loss of 600 million yen related to the U.S. subprime mortgage. Japanese and Korean banks have suffered losses due to the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States. According to estimates by UBS Securities Japan, the nine major Japanese banks have held more than one trillion yen of U.S. subprime mortgage-backed securities.

Subsequently, Citigroup also announced that the loss caused by the subprime mortgage crisis in July 2007 amounted to US $700 million, which eventually led to the decline of Citibank's share price from US $23 shares to US $3 shares in just six months, and the market value decreased by 90%

A series of bad news stunned the United States and even the whole world. The U.S. subprime mortgage crisis inevitably evolved into a global financial crisis.

Fannie and Freddie were entrusted by the U.S. government, Bear Stearns, the fifth largest investment bank in the United States, was acquired by * * * * for $236 million, Merrill Lynch was acquired by Bank of America, and Lehman Brothers died completely

In particular, the collapse of Lehman Brothers, with total assets of $700 billion at that time, directly detonated the global economic crisis!





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